Posts By The Tall Dane
Dreaming of a car free Copenhagen
I’m dreaming of a car free Copenhagen.
I don’t believe in New Year resolutions or waiting for “right moments” to change your life. If you feel something in your life needs a change, the right moment is often now. Now, while you have the thought and the motivation. Take the first step, make a resolution Stick to it. And also, seek help and support from your friends.
But still, I would like to take this opportunity of going into the year 2018 to make a daring proposition:
Make central Copenhagen completely car free!
Well… except for a few minor exceptions – but let’s take that later.
I have been living in Copenhagen (Nørrebro) for 7 years, and (before that) in the area (Lyngby / Holte) for another 7. It has been fun. It has also been a mixed blessing. When I moved to Lyngby it was to get an education and then back to Jutland, but then something kept me here. At first, there was a girl who’s big blue eyes got wet if I mentioned myself and Jutland in the same sentence1. Then there was work. Lastly (and most importantly) my climbing, acroyoga, and friends. I like it a lot.
But there is also something that was always a bit off for me. I never felt completely home. I missed the open space. I missed the clean air. When I bike through Copenhagen (I bike to almost everything) the dirt in the air and the smell of the fumes are not a pleasant experience. State of Green will tell you that “Copenhagen no. [is] 2 in Europe for Air Quality” (2015) – but then again, State of Green is founded by (among others) the Danish government, so of course they will tell you the good story. Clean Air Europe had in 2014 a number of recommendations for Denmark which (on one hand) is not so unusual but (on the other hand) disagrees a bit with the rosy image provided by State of Green.
So humour me a bit and join on this thought experiment of making Copenhagen a really green city2. First question would be…
How would people get around?
Short answer: Bicycles.
I would argue that Copenhagen is such a small city, that most people (not all) would be able to get around in their day to day business using bicycles. The Christiana bike and its competitors has been around long and proved themselves useful for transportation of a various of things. With the “new” electric bikes, it makes biking more accessible also to the group people not so eager to get the daily exercise while commuting – or just don’t have the capabilities for it any-more.
Other alternatives is (of course) walking 🙂 and public transportation. I will touch a bit on the later topic later in this essay.
Source: Stig Nygaard on Flickr.
Benefits
Now, let’s have a look at some of the benefits of having a car free city. There are a few that immediately come to my mind…
- Space
First thing, I think you will notice, is the space. What if all the space we use for roads could be open to the public? To pedestrians. To bicycles. To green areas. To cosy corners where Copenhageners could enjoy the outdoor life.Imagine big 4 lane (2 in each direction) roads being reduced to a single one way lane (for necessity traffic) and the rest given out to bicycles. Traffic lights timed for bicycles so that you could stroll with 25km/h through the inner city on your way to work – not stopping for any red light.
Imagine small gardens (with clean air so you could actually eat the stuff you grow3) at every street corner. Green areas to relax on. Petanque courts. Areas for slackline, parkour, skating, basketball, etc. Barbecue grills, hammocks, stages for live music and dancing. I kind of feel my imagination is a little bit limited right now… but the essential idea is… why restrict our social life to parks? Why not have it just outside our front door where we can meet our neighbours and connect with each-other.
What is your favourite outdoor activity? Why not have that outside your front door?
- Air quality
Under the assumption that most of the air pollution comes from traffic, removing (most of) the traffic would remove (most of) the air pollution. Simple.Imagine running through the city passing by local communal gardens with flowers and vegetables, and small patches of green with kids and dogs playing, and actually feel refreshed by the air that you breathe in.
In reality, the picture is a bit more complicated, though. Some of the air pollution also comes externally, from the environment outside Copenhagen. How much? I don’t know. And I would not know where to find such data. Also, some traffic need to be allowed in the city… see later in this essay for thoughts on that.
- Improved health
There are two sources of improved health. First, the current air pollution is estimated to cause between 800 to 1100 yearly premature deaths4. Thus, reducing the air pollution, would reduce this number as well.Secondly, the exercise itself will increase the health of the population (for those choosing the bike to work). This is a statement with modification to the individual. If it is a marathon runner that takes daily runs and other physical activity, and he/she has only 5 minutes to work, then it may not matter so much. But if it is otherwise an inactive person and he/she has perhaps 15 minutes to work (by bike), then the daily exercise will most likely increase that person’s health. The WHO recommends a 150 minutes of physical activity per week – corresponding to e.g. 5 times half an hour a week.
- Enjoy the silence
With all that traffic gone, I imagine there is going to be a lot of silence in Copenhagen. Actually, if some the free space were to be given back to parks and green area, maybe we will get more birds (other than pigeons and magpies) and people will open up their windows to hear them sing 🙂I also imagine that this silence will also contribute to lower stress levels of the general population – but that’s purely speculation on my side 😉
- Fewer and smaller traffic accidents
According to the Statistics Denmark there were 255 injured or fatalities in Copenhagen and Frederiksberg in 2016 involving either bicycles or pedestrians. While this number has been on a decline for almost 20 years and it is low (compared to the more hidden number of 800 to 1100 premature deaths due to bad air quality mentioned above) it is still a number that is worth mentioning. One might expect this number to go down, although not completely disappear, and perhaps accidents involving bikes and pedestrians (bikes running into other bikes or pedestrians) might increase. I would assume, though, that the injuries gained here would be smaller than those we see with encounter from the cars.
Source: Statistics Denmark.
- Better public transportation
A car free city does not involve free from buses. Quite the opposite, actually. Buses (as part of the public transportation system) is an important contribution to make it easy for those living in the city to get around without a bike. Whether the physical capabilities do not merit riding a bike, or if one needs to transport something (and does not have a cargo bike), or there is simply bad weather about, the public transportation should be a great alternative in those situations.While lots of the space in Copenhagen will be taken away from car roads and given to bicycle roads, I think that the space preserved to motorised traffic (such as buses) will be much less congested. The result will be that more buses can be instated and they can move quicker around. I have personally experienced (more than once) walking down Vesterbrogade and still be faster than the 4A bus servicing that street.
Another example is that I over the years have developed a saying – a small paraphrase of the saying misfortune seldom comes alone:
An A-bus seldom comes alone.
A-buses are the inner city buses in Copenhagen and are usually scheduled to arrive every 5th or 10th minute (depending on time of day) but with no fixed timetable as such. You would just know, that when you go down to the bus stop, you would maximum have to wait 5 minutes. What I often would see was (biking in the city) 2 or 3 A-buses (same line) driving head to tail of each-other. I would not pretend to understand it fully, but I presume that the traffic congestion in some city parts combined with bus-only lanes in other city parts make the buses tail up together.
That is current the state of central Copenhagen traffic situation – at least at certain hours.
- Tourists
So this point may not be seen as a benefit by all people. There are a lot of tourists in Copenhagen – which in general I think is a good thing – and if Copenhagen became a (near) car free city, that would certainly attract even more tourist. That is just my hunch… I might be wrong, though.
But… how…?
Yes… how would it be done?
I personally prefer the solution where cars (with exceptions) are banned from the city. It should be equal to everybody that you are not allowed to drive your car in the city… CEOs as well as cleaning ladies (and men), doctors as well as nurses, engineers as well as kindergarten teachers, politicians as well grass root activists.
When people (politicians?) talk about solutions such as a payment ring or (artificial) high parking fees, or other solutions, I can’t help but see the same characteristic in them: They all allow people that are better off with money to continue their habits, while people with less strong income must adapt.
Especially the member of the parliament should go first and skip their cars to work. I believe in dogfooding and find it absolutely toe-curling when people don’t use their own product or don’t follow the laws they vote for (or add convenient exceptions to it). You can say it is a good sign that it fails me (at the writing moment) to find good examples of non-doogfooding in Danish politics (or maybe just bad memory) but I still think it would suit the parliament to be in the front line 🙂
So, we would ban (most) cars in Copenhagen. Reduce all roads to either one way (one lane) streets (for cars only) or to “pedestrian streets” where (the excepted) cars could drive – but with pedestrians and bicycles having the right of way. In its basic idea, it is that simple!
Exceptions
But as I have mentioned a couple of times, there are some (obvious) exceptions to this simple rule. The number of exceptions should be kept at a minimal (again, dogfooding), but to list the ones I can think of…
- Ambulances, police, fire department
Need I say more? Important part of our infrastructure as a society and thus exempt from the ban.One could note, though, that perhaps while most cars are banned from the city, the need for police cars could perhaps be swapped out by police on motorbikes or, dare I suggest, on push bikes as well 🙂
Some might even get nostalgic and eye an opportunity for having the police riding horses again 😀
- Public transportation buses
As mentioned before, public transportation should be an attractive alternative for those not able to or not wanting to bike and walk around the city. Buses are an important part of that infrastructure and is (of course) exempt from the ban. - Goods delivery
Delivery of goods is also important and thus should be exempt – though perhaps with a minor twist.While my personal impression is that there are a lot fewer trucks in Copenhagen (goods delivery) than private cars it also feels a bit, hm, broad to just exempt all trucks from the ban. So perhaps exempted trucks are trucks that have a specific delivery or pick-up appointment, and then only on weekdays from 10am to 2pm. I think there are already similar rules in Copenhagen, so perhaps the idea is not so foreign.
- Diplomatic visits
Would I get away with suggesting that diplomatic visits and head of states would not enter Copenhagen by car? That they either are received outside Copenhagen or experience the Danish transportation culture first hand? Probably not. Dammit. 😀 - The queen and the royal family
Though I would love to see members of the royal family riding bikes through the streets of Copenhagen, I only barely dare to think the thought, to say nothing of suggesting it 😮 - Services that are dependent on vans / trucks / cars
A brief (and not complete) example list of this could be craftsmen (electricians, plumbers, carpenters, etc.), renovation services, construction services, road services, food service (for e.g. elderly people).How about delivery services for private addresses? Don’t quite know… on one hand the postage system has (for many years) shown that small packages clearly can be delivered using bicycles. On the other hand, it should be possible to get that double bed or washing machine delivered without overloading the cargo bike you borrowed from your neighbour.
- Some form of car sharing
Sometimes life just becomes much more easy if you have a car. Say you are a band and got a gig at the local pub, you don’t want to hire a moving crew to transport your gear: Too expensive and you feel better by taking good care of your instruments yourself. Here, perhaps, using the local car sharing service (multiple already exist in Cph) could be an option. The trick is, though, to somehow regulate this use in order not just flood Cph with car sharing cars now we just got rid of all the personal cars. How is that best done? I don’t know 🙁 - Taxis?
Yes. No. Maybe. Don’t know. What about bicycle taxis…?
But… how…? – Take 2
There are still a lot of open questions… one that immediately comes to mind is…
How about long distance commuters? People that either live in Copenhagen and work outside, or live outside and work inside. I kind of imagined that the latter would perhaps drive to the “no car barrier”, park their car there, and then take the public transportation into the city. I think that was actually part of the original 5 finger plan for Copenhagen. For the former, I would imagine the opposite pattern… you take the public transportation out of town, then find your car in your garage or, even better, use one of cars from the “incoming” people in a car sharing form.
Long distance travels? Say you have family in Jutlan but live in Copenhagen. You would like to have a car and use it to go visit your family. You could have it parked in a garage outside the car-free zone, but perhaps you need a bit of luggage with you when you go? Perhaps you have kids and suddenly the situation kind of requires a car. So clearly, in some cases, it should be possible to enter the car free zone with your car.
How would that work? Just thinking out loud… perhaps if the first 3 entries (per year) into Copenhagen were for free. The next 3 entries would then cost a low fee, say 100kr. The next 3 entries would be doubled in price to 200kr each. For each 3rd entry into Copenhagen the price would be doubled. If the family trip was done once a month, the family would pay 2100kr in fees. Reasonable? Perhaps the fees need to be adjusted. But it is only to illustrate that the careless driver who drives into Copenhagen once each week (using this scheme) would get to pay 26,214,100kr in fees. Ok, so this sounds like a lot, but the idea is that nobody need to drive their car into Copenhagen every week – and if they do, there probably need to be an exception for them.
Long distance visits? Probably same as above. Drive to the car free zone border, take the public transportation from there. Or you get the same 3 first time free scheme as above.
And oh… Electric cars! To make this plan even more green, and for me to accept the necessary cars more easily in Copenhagen, it would be awesome if it were so that all regular motorised traffic in Copenhagen should be electric. Less noise and cleaner for the environment.
By “regular motorised traffic”, I mean all the exempt cases (infrastructure services, buses, goods delivery) mentioned in the previous section. The irregular traffic (e.g. long distance visits in the previous paragraphs) could be exempt from the electric-car requirement. At least for the time being 😉
The last point I’m going to touch upon is… where is the zone going to be?
Well… A good start, I think, could be to take offset in the current environmental zone of Copenhagen:
Source: Flush-It.
Perhaps some would argue that the active harbour areas should be excluded from the car free zone in order for it to function properly. Perhaps. Like so many other points in this dream… there are lots of issues that need to be worked out and I don’t have many answers.
But I can always dream, can’t I?
- Curiously enough, she didn’t get wet eyes if I mentioned myself and e.g. Greenland in the same sentence. But I guess, that’s a completely different topic ;-) ↩
- Ok, so making Copenhagen a car free city is not the only thing it takes to make Copenhagen a green city. Other initiatives such as food sharing, using renewable energy, better waste treatment, etc. is also good topics to work on. But this is not for the scope of this little essay. ↩
- We might need to get some fresh soil as well for the gardens… The “ground soil” will take some years and effort to clean up properly as well. ↩
- Again, from the Clean Air Europe report. ↩
The Morning Routine
Memories from my time in Spain in August. Thank you both Didde-Marie and Anita for partaking in my project(s) and for playing with me. Hope to see you and play with you again soon ❤️️
Flyer: Anita Kajor a.k.a. YogAnita
Base: Jørn Christensen
Creators: Didde-Marie Møller Hansen & Jørn Christensen
Track: Monday Morning, 3 A.M. (Lancefield)
Stockholm information strategy
In Denmark (Copenhagen) this space would be a battle ground for 5 different quick loan companies. Not in Stockholm… Here they actually show information!?!?1
- …and ads for SL themselves on how environmental friendly buses and public transportation is. But I think that is fair :-) ↩
My only photo from Amsterdam
The meaning of this sign did not register immediately with my (and my friend)… don’t know why, but perhaps it is because the liquid here does not behave the same way as I am used to (i.e. leveling out to be horisontal)!?!?!?
The plan is to not have a plan
As I am writing this, I am sitting in a bus from Madrid to Torvizcón venturing out to new adventures. The trip started yesterday evening with my plane being an hour delayed and before that: My last working day at 3Shape.
Wait, what? You quit your job at 3Shape?
Yes. And am in the process of selling my apartment in Copenhagen as well.
It has been a process for some months now to get this started, and already I have had a number of Wows, Amazing, Wish it was me, and I admire your courage.
My journey to where I am right now actually begun some time back. I mean; the actual decision to quit my job was done late April, start May, but before that I had been contemplating a bit on my life, trying to figure out if I was where I wanted to be. And before that, of course, was my trip to South America which may be seen as the place where I got time to think those thoughts, or just a different reaction to the same desire (already there before the South American trip) – depending on how you view it. So where do you draw the actual line in the sand? I don’t know.
But as I said; it has been a work in progress for some time. Coming back from South America I had a number of dreams and projects that I would like to find time to do in my day to day life. I definitely wanted to do more acroyoga and also teach it – to share the joy that it has brought me. I also wanted to teach climbing again, and planned a fall training course that unfortunately did not fan out. Getting more and more pressed on time (and sleep) with all the things I wanted to do, I also realized that I had not moved out of Copenhagen as I had promised myself (multiple times).
Realizing all this, it became clear to me that if I did not move now, then I might never move, and that was a scary thought. So when people compliment me on the courage to break up, to me it is more a kind of lack of courage to stay1.
So my plans right now are quite slim. I am participating in the Partner Acrobatics Teacher Training here in Spain (hence the bus trip) and after that I am returning to Copenhagen to complete the sale of my apartment. From there on, I have no plans. I do have some vague ideas and hopes for opportunities to arise, perhaps travel a bit, and other “usual” stuff that free birds do. But actual planning…? No.
This, I think, will be the first time in my life where I do not have a plan for my (immediate) future – and that is also an adventure in itself 🙂
Food shopping for the hungry participants…
My morning view the next month’s time…
- Well, more or less. My perception of what is important and what is the driver behind my decisions change a bit over time. Part of the story is also that I have not managed to establish a family yet. While it is easy to focus on the negative side of that, I decided that I also need to focus on the positive side of that and take advantage of the freedom that comes with that situation. ↩
Returning to Santiago and to Denmark
For the impatient: Check out my hobby project Up Next DJ or read my book review of Thinking — Fast and slow. Or just skip down to the photos at the bottom of the page 😉
Arequipa and Iquique
When I left you last, I had to some extend come to and end of my travels — at least in the sense that there was nothing left that I had to see or do. And hence, the rest of the trip has been more relaxed and nothing “big” has really happened. But looking through my photos, something has happened anyway 😮
The trip from Cuzco down to Chile was beautiful. Colca Canyon and Arequipa was beautiful. Santa Catalina Monastery in Arequipa was sooo nice. I loved walking around in there… People say it is a city within a city — and it really is! Lovely garden and so peaceful 🙂
In Chile, I spend 2 weeks in Iquique. I tried to take para-gliding lessons, but I only had one lesson and then the weather changed. So I spend my time relaxing, slacklining on the beach, and working on an old hobby project of mine: Up Next DJ. I guess an open question here would be why would you use your time in South America working on your computer? Well… I guess that was kind of the plan from the beginning. It has been a project that I have wanted to work on for a couple of years — but never found the time. Now, with 6 months out of the calendar, I thought I might find time.
The view from my bed 🙂 Hostel Backpackers, Iquique.
Santiago and Valparaíso
Anyway… Lots of pit stops down along the coastline of Chile: I visited Kat in Antofagasta again. La Serena, Vicuña, and Pisco Elqui was really beautiful as well. I really enjoyed coming out of the desert. It may have it’s beautiful moments, the desert, but I am not so marveled by it as (some) other travelers seem to be. I like the green part more 😉
I had 2½ weeks in Santiago and Viña del Mar / Valparaíso1 catching up with the acroyoga community and selling my bike. I loved Valparaíso; relaxed atmosphere, cozy cafés, beautiful street art — a very colorful city.
Street art in Valparaíso at Plaza de Descanso
Final thoughts?
And now, I am sitting in the airplane somewhere over Argentina contemplating on my journey. I am so happy that I took the time of to live out this adventure! Would I do it again? Yes and no. Right now I feel that I have lived out my desire for traveling solo. On a motorbike. It is just hard to pack up your things every day, or every 2 or 3 days, and move on to the next place. I do like my alone time, but I also like to be able to share experiences with people. You know, a travel buddy with whom you can connect and remember small funny things from your adventure.
And it is difficult really to connect with people when you are on the go. You may find a “long lost friend” and establish strong bonds in a day or two, yes, but most often I think it is something that is build up over time — over shared experiences and beautiful moments. And when you are on the go, it just is difficult to find this time and to commit to this when you think Oh, I will be leaving tomorrow. Or the day after. Also, doesn’t help if you are a bit introvert and a bit picky with whom you spend your time… 😉
And also… The language. I knew almost nothing of Spanish when I embarked, and now…? Well… a bit more, but still not enough to have an interesting (and fluent!) conversation. Was it a problem? Hm… no… I survived! 🙂 Did I miss out? Yes! There were several occasions were I wished I knew more Spanish. On the other hand, I did find it difficult to motivate myself to sit down (in a school) and learn it. Traveling alone, and in hostels, Spanish was not really needed, and there was just so many other interesting options for me to do 🙂
Santiago seen from above
Hm… what else? I am both looking forward to come home, but also sad. There are many people that I wished I had more time to connect to. So many where I want to say “See you again” instead of Goodbye. But I also miss my family and friends in Copenhagen. Lots of fun stuff going on in Denmark as well! And who knows… perhaps some new adventure will pop up 😉
Until then… Take care 🙂
Thinking — Fast and slow
Oh… oh… oh… I almost forgot! During my travels I found time to read the book Thinking — Fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman. An absolute recommendable book to read. Read my review of it and see if it inspires you 😉
- Viña del Mar and Valparaíso are two “minor” cities just west of Santiago at the coast. They are really close and grown together — to me it just seems like one big city. But you know… traditions and a sense of belonging ;-) ↩
Up Next DJ
So, a couple of years back I was having a great summer in Copenhagen with lots of good parties and good friends. To make the parties really really great, the organizers of the parties also thought Hey, let’s have a DJ! One that will keep the party filled with good music and prevent (drunk) skipping of songs 🙂, and so they hired / invited local DJs in the community to come and play. Great, right?
Well… for me not so great. I did not like the music that much, and my impression from talking with other (potential dancing partner) friends I was not the only one. So I remember walking home, disappointed, from one particular party with two main questions on my mind:
- Why is it more important for the DJ that the beat is fluent and mixes correctly from track to track, than there is people on the dance floor?
- And if the DJ notices that there is no people on the dance floor, why is it that his conclusion is Oh, it must be because the music is not loud enough… and turns up the volume.
Result — at least as I saw it — a great party with great friends, but with music too crappy to dance to, and too loud to have good conversations. And hence, the idea of Up Next DJ was born 🙂
I actually made a prototype of Up Next DJ back then — at that time I called it Virtual DJ — but I did not have the time to develop it further and it stayed dormant a few years. Now, while traveling in South America, I took my time to develop it a bit further. The plan (at least initially) is to get it to be a semi-mature service that people is able to use. Where it goes from there, I do not know 🙂
If you would like to know more, or just be kept updated, please visit Up Next DJ or write me a mail at contact – at – upnext – dot – dj.
Note: At the time of writing this, the current state of the project is still in development. If you want to become a beta tester (when time comes) or if you want to join the project (really appreciated skills would be Android or iOS app development, web UI design, graphics design) please also write to the above mentioned address.
Thinking — Fast and Slow
And now to something completely different…
Have you ever wondered why you make the choices in life you do — e.g. not learning from bad experiences?
Or why it is difficult for people to make good decisions about future — say, not saving up for retirement?
Or why people seem to make contradictory choices — e.g. valuing same things different in different contexts?
If so, then this book may be something for you…
Lying on my desk for almost a year, I finally found time to read it while traveling. And I loved it. Daniel Kahneman takes us through 30+ years of research that he and Amos Tversky have made since the 70s. It is a story about the two systems (the fast and the slow) in our brains, how they interact, and the mistakes they give rise to. It is engaging, surprising, and I had so many eureka-moments reding it… I have made so many notes and references to things I want to remember. Just to showcase a little bit of what it holds, here are some subjects that it handles. See also the TED-talk by Kahneman below for an introduction to his two selves — the experiencing self, and the remembering self — and what impact it (should) have on our choices for the future.
System 1 and System 2
Before presenting a few topics from the book, I have to introduce to you System 1 and System 2. To make it very brief here, one could characterize the two systems as
- System 1 – the fast one
-
- Responsible for automatic tasks, such as forming intuitions and emotions, reading facial expressions, retrieving trivial knowledge.
- Operates automatically and quickly. It is always running in your subconscious — cannot be turned off.
- Can be trained to execute pre-learned skills, such as automatic responses and experience-based intuitions.
- Responsible for storing, associating, and retrieving memories.
- System 2 – the slow one
-
- Deliberate thoughts and self-control.
- In use where mental effort is required. E.g. calculating difficult mathematical questions (what is 34 x 21?) or engaging in attention-requiring conversations.
- Can either endorse or reject information from System 1. Endorsed information manifests itself in beliefs, attitudes, and intentions.
- Is a scarce resource. You cannot play chess while calculating 34 x 21 while doing (non-routine) dancing while controlling your breath, etc. Actually, most often you can only do one task at the time requiring support from System 2.
- Is lazy. Often mistakes that we make arise from System 2 failing to catch non-well-founded impressions from System 1, jumping to false conclusions.
The details of these two systems are, of course, much much more complex — these are just to give you a brief sense of what we are talking about.
Sketch of “Thinking — Fast and slow” by Eva-Lotta Lamm.
WYSIATI
Not to be confused with WYSIWYG, the What You See Is All There Is is a concept that Kahneman introduces early on in the book and uses in so many contexts that it deserves its own acronym: WYSIATI. It basically means that when you evaluate a story, a set of facts, or impressions of people, etc., you only evaluate what is presented to you, and you often fail to counter in other facts that are not readily available to your System 1. Your System 2 fails to stop up and ask what is missing from the story. An example from the book1:
The measure of success for System 1 is the coherence of the story it manages to create. The amount and quality of the data on which the story is based are largely irrelevant. When information is scarce, which is a common occurrence, System 1 operates as a machine for jumping to conclusions. Consider the following: “Will Mindik be a good leader? She is intelligent and strong …”. An answer quickly came to your mind, and it was yes. You picked the best answer based on the very limited information available, but you jumped the gun. What if the next two adjectives were corrupt and cruel?
Take note of what you did not do as you briefly thought of Mindik as a leader: You did not start by asking, “What would I need to know before I formed an opinion about the quality of someones leadership?”
In short, after hearing the two first adjectives, System 1 immediately jumped to the conclusion that Mindik is a good leader, and even-though the two next adjectives may be negative, there will remain a bias favoring the first impression.
The premortem
One of the features of System 1 is overconfidence. Kahneman argues that it can be tamed but not vanquished, and that it arises from the fact that the validity of a story is based on it’s coherence — not by the quality or amount of data. WYSIATI. He draws out the premortem procedure, actually contributed by Gary Klein2:
The procedure is simple: when the organization has almost come to an important decision but has not formally committed itself, Klein proposes gathering for a brief session a group of individuals who are knowledgeable about the decision. The premise of the session is a short speech: “Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster. Please take 5 to 10 minutes to write a brief history of that disaster.”
I immediately found myself thinking of several scenarios where this exercise might have come in handy 😮
Anchors
Anchors are quite impressive as well — and can be (and most likely is) used in the advertisement industry. It is therefore a critical subject to know about in your daily life. I think I will just bring a small excerpt from the book, kicking off the subject3:
Amos and I once rigged a wheel of fortune. It was marked from 0 to 100, but we had it built so that it would stop only at 10 or 65. We recruited students of the University of Oregon as participants in our experiment. One of us would stand in front of a small group, spin the wheel, and ask them to write down the number on which the wheel stopped, which of course was either 10 or 65. We then asked them two questions:
Is the percentage of African nations among UN members larger or smaller than the number you just wrote?
What is your best guess of the percentage of African nations in the UN?
The spin of a wheel of fortune — even one that is not rigged — cannot possible yield useful information about anything, and the participants in our experiment should simply have ignored it. But they did not ignore it. The average estimates of those who saw 10 and 65 were 25% and 45%, respectively.
What is in effect here is the anchoring effect and seen from a logical standpoint it should not exist. Yet, it is one of the most reliable and robust effects documented in experimental psychology. An effect that you should be aware of, and (to some extend) can counter.
Other subjects
Other subjects in the book are
- the Law of small numbers
- the asymmetry between inferring the particular from the general and vice versa
- how bad impressions are more resistant
- over-estimating rare events
- story framing and moral effects
- death by pleasure
and more.
While reading it, I also came to think of a life lesson from my dad. I was in my teenage years and had just starting teaching badminton to kids younger than me. I remember, while preparing my teaching, my dad gave me this advice (recalled loosely from memory):
It does not matter how awful or uninspiring you session has been. Just make sure that the ending is good and fun, and your students will return.
While I (and probably not my dad himself) never thought it to be 100% true, it does hold a lot of truth in it, and it coincides with what Kahneman calls the duration neglect of memories. In short, you do not remember episodes by how long they are, but what the peak pleasure (or pain) was, combined with the end pleasure (or pain) of the event. He talks more about this and the notion of the two selves (the experiencing and remembering selves) here in his TED talk:
Final notes
If I have to say one negative thing about the book, it is that I found the later chapters in the book less founded and less intuitive correct than the rest of the book. In contrast to the rest of the book where I found myself either immediately convinced by his statements, or later, convinced by the following descriptions of his research, the later chapters presented points that I could not quite convince myself of was true. But perhaps I was just tired while reading those chapters, and I will definitely try to read the book again — if for nothing else, then just to absorb his good knowledge even more.
A final note is a reference to something I in my mind dubbed Death by Pleasure:4
Other classic studies showed that electrical stimulation of specific areas in the rat brain (and of corresponding areas in the human brain) produce a sensation of intense pleasure, so intense in some cases that rats who can stimulate their brain by pressing a lever will die of starvation without taking a break to feed themselves.
Has anybody else read the book Infinite Jest? If so, they know what reference I am making here…
Lake Titicaca, Machu Picchu, and Cusco
Lake Titicaca and Machu Picchu had been one of the few must-do things I had on my todo list when leaving Denmark – and now, here in July, I got to visit both 🙂
Lake Titicaca
Lake Titicaca… what to say…? On one hand great to finally be at the famous lake – on the other hand… it is just another lake. I think I had envisioned a much lush green environment than it actually was. Something with forests and flowery bushes – a bit junglely – down to the shore of the lake, while instead it was this stony mountain landscape with yellow-brownish grass all over – not many green green colours to see :-/ But ok – it is also in 3850m height and it is winter down here.
Anyway… it was a great experience none the less. The community out there1 is real rural Peruvian culture. Not many tourists come there (yet) and so the landscape you drive through feels really authentic. I had sought out a hostel run by Felix Turpo with good recommendations, but first challenge was to get there, though… Felix’s hostal is located 100m away from the main (dirt/gravel) road – 100m down a steep hill side with only a pedestrian’s pathway to drive on. At the bottom you turn a 90 degree corner, and drive along the edge of a cliff. I have been talking about driving along exposed roads before, but this, I think, is a worthy contender for the exposed-road prize:
Yes… there was not much space 😉
There is actually not much to do out there, so Felix offered to arrange a trip to the floating islands. I had vaguely heard about them, but really… I had no clue of what they were, so I said yes, and before I knew of it (the next day, actually) I was on my way to one of the smaller islands, named Uros Titino.
Arriving to the island made some alarm bells ring, though. I was greeted by the President which sat me down to explain me how the island was made out of rush; it took a year or so to build their island and it will last… was it 15 years? Anyway… it immediately became clear to me that I had walked into a (smaller) tourist trap – just the kind of thing that gives me red goose bumps. They live of inviting tourists to their island (a small donation of 10 soles is appreciated) and selling them artesanal stuff (souvenirs). But I did get a trip in their boat of rush and it was a nice relaxing trip out there. So ok… not so bad 🙂
The floating island of Uros Titino – made of rush.
Machu Picchu
Machu Picchu… Before we actually go to the Machu Picchu section, we will take a small de-tour to Llactapata. In an attempt to avoid the big tourist crowds, I had searched a bit on the internet to find alternatives for Machu Picchu – and up pops Llactapata.
Llactapata is (yet) another site with Inca ruins and is located up another mountain ridge about 5km west of Machu Picchu. It has yet to be fully adopted by the Peruvian government as an important Inca site, but people are working on it. The uptake is slow, however, and there was not much information on the net about Llactapata. So I packed my camping gear and trudged up the hill in hope of a great solo experience – and perhaps a great sunrise picture over Machu Picchu 🙂
Reality…
Reality of the Llactapata experience… not a solo experience 🙁 Apparently the trail I was hiking up the mountain on, was one of the old Inca trails that tours guide tourists down (towards Agues Calientes2) at the end of a 4 day trek. I met several groups going the opposite direction of me and about 15 minutes before the actual Inca ruins is little hostal/restaurant/camping site. I had actually seen it on one of the on-line maps – but did not dare to trust the information. Who would put up a lodge there? And there was also a little shop marked on the map – which also turned out to be true. Although, all they seemed to have was bananas, mandarins, and bottled water.
Anyway… my plan was to walk on up to the ruins and camp there – alone. Unfortunately, when I got there, there was a sign with camping prohibited (of course) and instructions to go to the camp site. Damn. So me back to the camp site to join the 7-tourists group camping there already. But… the view was great. Open landscape over to Machu Picchu – and with that a little thematic follow-up… We have had breakfast with a view. We have had lunch with a view. Here it is… Evening dinner with a view:
Dinner with a View – Machu Picchu 🙂
Unfortunately Machu Picchu is completely surrounded by higher mountains all around. Hence, the sunrise picture went awash… when the sun peeked over the mountains, it had already shed its colours 🙁
Machu Picchu
So… Machu Picchu. You can either pay 12 USD to take the bus up from Agues Calientes3 or take the stairs. I choose the latter option:
And the ascent begins….
I had booked access to the Machu Picchu Montaña4 as well, and thus… 3hours and 3200 steps later (yes, I counted them5), one get to make a selfie 🙂
… and 3200 steps later 🙂
About Machu Picchu itself… It was great. If you look at just a single building… then not so big a deal. But the city as a whole… that is an amazing piece of work and art. And of course, the most sacred buildings do really have amazing stone craftsman ship. Big big boulders, cut and polished into a perfect a fit, and then mounted on top of each other in roughly 2500m altitude. Amazing!
The area is actually an earth quake zone – and Machu Picchu is (of course) build to endure that. The Incas did not use mortar. The stones are just placed on top of each other, tilting slightly inwards. When an earth quake hits Machu Picchu, it is said that the stones dances on top of each other, and then just fall back into their intended positions. Simply amazing!
Cusco
Cusco… At first I loved it really much. As a tourist, you of course only walks around the old city part. It is amazing! The old city part is protected such that the owner of a building must maintain the outer appearance of the building in the old style. Hence you can see lots of old buildings (both Inca and Spanish) that is kept in really good condition. Western companies such as Star-bucks and KFC are of course present, but they are not allowed to put up big neon signs. Instead they are limited to a neat little logo that fit into the environment. Me gusta 🙂
In the old city part there is strict rules on what owners are allowed to do with (the facades of) the buildings. Hence; KFC is present, but visually not as intruding as in Europe. Me gusta 🙂
On the funny side… Nobody seem to take notice of the traffic lights. This is no news for me as I experienced this in La Paz6 as well, where everybody just seemed to drive where-ever they could. What is news is that the (local) authorities seems to have acknowledged this problem. But… instead of educating the public and/or handing out fines to traffic light violators, their solution is to station one or two traffic wardens (women) in the light crossing. Not to keep order per se, but to look at the traffic light, and indicating go go go to the direction with green while blowing their whistles. Pretty silly.
So in Peru they have acknowledged that traffic lights do not have any effect. Their solution? Put a (female) traffic warden in all their traffic controlled crossings.
And while speaking of whistles… here comes the not so fun part of Cusco. Tourist police (to keep tourists safe) walking around near the square, doing nothing but blowing their whistles from time to time. Apparently this is to create awareness of their presence (yes, I can see you clearly in your neon green west, thank you). Cars honking all the time to get attention because they also function as a taxi (but with no sign). Locals trying to get your attention to sell you sun glasses, polish your shoes, “free” massages, and souvenirs. There is never a second of peace and quiet in the city, and after 3 days with this, I felt that I had seen what I needed to see of Cusco.
Next stop…
Arequipa – I think. With my visit to Machu Picchu, I have reached my second big goal I had with this trip (Patagonia being the first) and I will now slowly drive southwards to be in Chile in August.
Thank you for reading… take care.
- The community is named Llachón and is located at the tip of a peninsula a the northern side of the lake in Peru. ↩
- Recently re-named to Machu Picchu Pueblo – although the old name still lingers. ↩
- And 12 USD to get down again… ↩
- Machu Picchu Montaña is one of the two popular peaks on either side of Machu Picchu that tourists can ascend to have a great overview of the citadel. ↩
- — Not! But Machu Picchu Pueblo is in 2000m height, and the Montaña is in 3060m height and with roughly 3 steps pr altitude meter… ↩
- So, La Paz is an awful city to drive around in. It is build in a pot – every direction you go, you either go steep upwards, or steep downwards. You can do nothing but follow the dense traffic and try not to be too hard on your clutch. Anyway… so at one time I was the first vehicle at a light crossing that had turned red. After a little while, the traffic on the other side of the traffic light started to move again. I, of course, did nothing (red light), and not 3 seconds went by before the cars behind me started honking their horns. On the right corner, there were a couple of police officers standing. They were not interested in the traffic light or the cars, but well… they were there, so instead I just turned around to see who was honking. I caught the gaze of the driver in the truck behind me. He was gesticulating go go go. Gesticulating towards the police officers he indicated dismissal – they would not do anything… so just go…! I just waited the 5 seconds more until the light turned green, and then drove the 15 meters forward that the traffic now allowed :-/ ↩
The Madidi Jungle experience
So the main attraction the last week would be the Madidi Jungle tour. The jungle was not really part of my plan to begin with, but it seems that everybody was/is stoked on how great it is, so when the Madidi jungle popped up on my radar, I thought why not.
But… I don’t know if I had too high expectations for the trip or I am just and old ungrateful bastard, but again I found myself thinking was this it? I mean… it was fun to experience the jungle and all – even-though it was not as dark an dense as I had imagined it – but it did not seem like such a great revelation as others have made it out to be. For starters, I did not see as much wild life as I had expected. Well… I did know that wild life were more easily explored on a pampas tour, but still… the guide seemed eager to show us monkeys, and I was just thinking where is the puma or the jaguar!?!?!? But we did get to see some cool leaf cutter ants 🙂
Leaf cutter ants. They are actually farmers… they put the leafs into a hole and cultivates fungus, which they eat.
I think one thing that also nagged me was that I had deliberately chosen a tour company that was not the cheapest one – the Madidi Jungle Ecolodge. Partly because they were going further up the river in the jungle (and they told me that would increase the chance of spotting wild life a bit) but more because I got the impression that some of my money would go to the conservation of the Madidi national park. Unfortunately, during my stay at the lodge, we did not get information about this conservation. I tried to ask a bit about it, but got vague answers. It probably did not help that the guide was not fully fluent in English (though advertised so) and there were several occasions where I did not fully understand what he meant. There were also occasions where he clearly did not understand my question either, but instead of trying to clarify my question, he would just answer that he thought I was asking about :-/
But it was a good experience none the less. I skipped the pampas tour, though. Mainly because when the local staff tried to sell me a pampas tour (and while reading about it on the net) they only mentioned the same animals as I had already seen in the jungle.
The house pet Tapir at Madidi Jungle Ecolodge. It was taken in when the mom was killed.
Ruta 3
But what was fun, though, was the Ruta 3 from Coroico to Rurrenabaque. Or to be more correct; the fun part was from Coroico to Yucumo.
First thing that got my attention was… hey(!) what is this car doing in my lane!?!?!? And by the looks of his sudden reaction, he must have been thinking the same about me.
Turns out, I was in the wrong lane. He stopped and explained me that on this road, you drive in the left lane. Reason: When people are going down the mountain, they will be furthest away from the cliff and thus have the best overview of on-coming traffic. To be honest, a couple of days earlier I had been told the same on the Death Road, but I just thought it was a rule they had made for the sake of the mountain-bikers on the Death road and not anywhere else. But along Ruta 3, there are two stretches which are left hand sided. I just missed the sign!1 But then comes the question… when does it go back to right hand side driving? Even the locals are not sure and the best advice is to proceed with caution…
Second thing about Ruta 3 is it’s condition. It was gravel road and it was a bit more rough than what I had encountered at Ruta 25. I had kind of figured that one out when I heard/read stories about trucks and buses taking 15 hours or more to drive that stretch. But further-more, it is littered with pot holes. Not just on the gravel (which was interesting enough) but also on the asphalt. You can have (fairly) good asphalt, and then suddenly pot holes are littered on the road. Some up to a square meter in size, some 30-40 cm deep. Better to avoid these 🙂
In general driving on the road was an interesting experience. Some parts would be asphalt. Other dirt road. But I did not find the logic in which stretches were asphalt and which were dirt roads. It would vary between a few kilometers of asphalt, then some dirt road, then asphalt again. A couple of times you would only have 20m to 100m of dirt road before a new stretch asphalt would begin. According to a local guy, the problem would be corruption. I saw a plaque along the road informing about the construction of the road between La Paz and Trinidad (which covers Ruta 3). It was dated back in 19822. Along the road there are 2 good tunnels that have been build – but never taken into use. What would happen is that some company would get a bag of money to build (a part of) the road, but after a while the money would be gone and the work perhaps only 1/3 completed. Then a new bag of money would be given – but with same result. And so on… They are still working on asphaltising new stretches as we speak.
The end result? A funny mix of old un-maintained road with several pot holes and bumpiness (due to geological activity) along with rather new stretches of road in good condition.
Oh well… it just makes it a more interesting ride 😉 In the end, it was not as big a marathon as Ruta 25. Approximately 200km of interesting road, covered in 6-7 hours. But great views along the way 🙂
Next stop…
Lake Titicaca, Cusco, and Machu Picchu 🙂
Take care.
- To be honest, I am not quite certain if I missed the sign, or if I saw the sign but just did not pay attention to it. The thing about signs in Bolivia is that a) when there is a sign prohibiting or ordering you to do something, there is rarely a sign negating the first one. E.g. if there is a speed limit, it is more or less up to you to guess when the limit is lifted again. And b) signs are often ignored. You are only allowed to drive 35 km/h? Locals go 80 or more regardless. Not allowed to take over? Who cares!?!?!? Even traffic light is ignored – like when you stop at a red light in La Paz, and there is a couple of police men just next to the crossing, and people behind you start honking at you because there is plenty of room for you to cross the light!?!? ↩
- Or was it in 1988? Unfortunately I was not smart enough to take a photo of it… ↩